Saturday, November 28, 2009
CLIMATE SCIENCE AND THE INNER RING
It now seems clear that many climate scientists have shown a most unscientific lack of interest in following the data wherever that data may lead, coupled with an unwholesome eagerness to disregard and to disrespect the opinions of anyone outside of a closed circle of "experts."
In comments on a NYT blog (excerpted at Instapundit), someone comments:
"It is possible that some areas of climate science has become sclerotic. It is possible that climate science has become too partisan, too centralized. The tribalism that some of the leaked emails display is something more usually associated with social organization within primitive cultures; it is not attractive when we find it at work inside science."
This kind of tribalism is by no means limited to "primitive cultures," rather, it is dismayingly common in societies of all types. The phenomenon was astutely analyzed by C S Lewis in his writing on what he called the Inner Ring.
continued at Chicago Boyz
5:48 AM
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
THE RETURN OF CLIPPY
Remember Clippy, the irritating Windows feature involving a paperclip icon which would periodically show up and give you (usually useless) advice about whatever it thought you were trying to do?
Clippy has returned, and it wants to help make the case for global warming.
(Space down about half a page to see Clippy)
12:49 PM
THANKSGIVING AND TEMPORAL BIGOTRY
Stuart Buck encountered a teacher who said "Kids learn so much these days. Did you know that today a schoolchild learns more between the freshman and senior years of high school than our grandparents learned in their entire lives?" ("She said this as if she had read it in some authoritative source", Stuart comments.)
She probably had read it in some supposedly-authoritative source, but it’s an idiotic statement nevertheless. What, precisely, is this wonderful knowledge that high-school seniors have today and which the 40-year-olds of 1840 or 1900 were lacking?
continued at Chicago Boyz
12:37 PM
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
A SUPERCOMPUTER SAGA
Why did entrepreneur Steve Blank really, really hate one particular Cray supercomputer?
And why did he buy it?
Story here.
5:55 AM
Monday, November 23, 2009
DRUCKER AND LEWIS ON THEORY AND EXPERIENCE
One of the issues raised in my post Myths of the Knowledge Society, and in the discussion thereof, is the question of formal, theory-based knowledge versus tacit, experience-based knowledge. What is the appropriate scope of use of each of these modalities?
Several years ago, I excerpted some thoughts from Peter Drucker which are relevant to this subject. I think they're worth re-posting here...
About 20 years ago, Peter Drucker wrote a wonderful pseudo-autobiography, "Adventures of a Bystander." It tells his own story only indirectly, via profiles of people he has known. These range from from his grandmother and his 4th-grade teacher in Austria to Henry Luce (Time-Life) and Alfred Sloan (GM).
In the chapter titled "Ernest Freedberg's World," Drucker writes about two old-line merchants. The first of these, called "Uncle Henry" by those who knew him, was the founder and owner of a large and succesful department store. When Drucker met him, he was already in his eighties. Uncle Henry was a businessman who did things by intuition more than by formal analysis, and his own son Irving, a Harvard B-School graduate, was appalled at "the unsystematic and unscientific way the store was being run."
continued at Chicago Boyz
7:26 PM
Sunday, November 22, 2009
MYTHS OF THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY
Continuing my retro-reading of old Forbes ASAP issues. In the October 1993 issue, Rich Karlgaard, arguing that book value is of declining importance in evaluating companies, says:
Human intelligence and intellectual resources are now any company's most valuable assets.
(Note that word "now"...we'll be coming back to it)
Rich quotes Walter Wriston:
Indeed, the new source of wealth is not material, it is information,knowledge applied to work to create value...A person with the skills to write a complex software program that can produce a billion dollars of revenue can walk past any customs officer in the world with nothing of 'value' to declare.
I think Rich Karlgaard (now publisher of Forbes) is a very smart and insightful guy. (His blog is here.) And Walter Wriston was one of the giants of banking, back when it was possible to use such a phrase without snickering. But in this case, I think they are seriously overestimating the newness of the importance of knowledge in the economy. And such overestimation has continued and increased in the years since 1993.
continued at Chicago Boyz
4:03 PM
Saturday, November 21, 2009
THE RETURN OF THE BLOB
Ever see the 1958 movie The Blob? Commenter George V, at this Neptunus Lex post, watched it during Halloween, and wrote a pretty funny comment.
In the movie, quick-thinking citizens use CO2 fire extinguishers to freeze the outer-space blob which is threatening humanity, after which the USAF flies it to the arctic and drops it on an ice floe, where it will stay forever..."As long as the Artic doesn’t melt" says Steve McQueen’s character.
Today, of course, citizens would never be allowed to react to the threat in such a direct and immediate fashion. Either OSHA or CPSIA..probably both..would object to the use of fire extinguishers in a way not specifically authorized…amateur blob-suppressors would also get in trouble with several unions which would assert blog-freezing as their exclusive territory. Not to mention EPA issues with all that CO2 release.
People would be told to leave the matter in the hands of the authorities, namely Homeland Security...which would tell Congress they needed more money if they were to be expected to add blob-fighting to their mission. Congress would still be debating the matter (especially which extinguishing/freezing agent should be used instead of CO2 and which companies get the enormous fire-extinguisher contracts) when the blob reached Washington DC.
cross-posted at Chicago Boyz
8:56 AM
Friday, November 20, 2009
AL GORE, SCIENTIST
Talking up geothermal energy, Al Gore said:
the interior of the earth is extremely hot, several million degrees
Actually, the temperature at the earth's core is probably somewhere around 5000-9000 degrees Celsius. (Even if we convert the higher number to Farenheit, we still get only about 16000 degrees. So if "several" means "at least two," then Gore is off by--at a minimum--a factor of over 100 to 1.)
As John Derbysire says:
If the temperature anywhere inside the earth was "several million degrees," we'd be a star.
Gore also referred to geothermal energy as "relatively new." According to Wikipedia and a couple of other sources, commercial geothermal production of electricity in Italy began in 1911...which make this "relatively new" energy source significantly older than nuclear power. Going back futher, geothermal was used for district heating in 14th century France.
11:22 AM
Thursday, November 19, 2009
HATIN' ON PALIN
In George MacDonald Fraser's picaresque novel Flashman (which is set in 1839-1842), the hero (actually more of an antihero) marries the daughter of a very wealthy Scottish mill owner. This creates problems with Lord Cardigan, the commander of the fashionable regiment in which Flashman is serving--indeed, Cardigan has insisted that Flashman leave the regiment. Here's Flashman, trying to get the decision reversed:
Just the sight of him, in his morning coat, looking as though he had been inspecting God on parade, took the wind out of me. When he demanded to know, in his coldest way, why I intruded on him, I stuttered out my question: why was he sending me out of the regiment?
"Because of your marriage, Fwashman," says he. "You must have known very well what the consequences would be. The lady, I have no doubt, is an excellent young woman, but she is--nobody. In these circumstances your resignation is imperative."
"But she is respectable, my lord," I said. "I assure you she is from an excellent family; her father--"
"Owns a factory," he cut in. "Haw-haw. It will not do. My dear sir, did you not think of your position? Of the wegiment? Could I answer, sir, if I were asked: 'And who is Mr Fwashman's wife' 'Oh, her father is a Gwasgow weaver, don't you know?'"
continued at Chicago Boyz
6:28 AM
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
BLOG POST OF THE DAY
This post:
On the same day that Obama expressed "dismay" at the building of more apartment buildings in a suburb of Jerusalem (which Obama called for being the "undivided" capital of Israel back when he was trying to get the Jewish vote), Iran has sentenced 5 protesters to be executed. Of course, so far Obama has said nothing about this.
...from Common Sense & Wonder
5:10 PM
MATHEMATICS VERSUS THE BLOB
(...and so far, the blob seems to be winning)
Here's a New York Daily News article on mathematical ignorance among City University of New York students:
During their first math class at one of CUNY's four-year colleges, 90% of 200 students tested couldn't solve a simple algebra problem, the report by the CUNY Council of Math Chairs found. Only a third could convert a fraction into a decimal.
And here's Sandra Stotsky, discussing some of the reasons for poor math performance in America's schools:
But the president’s worthy aims (to improve math and science education--ed) won’t be reached so long as assessment experts, technology salesmen, and math educators—the professors, usually with education degrees, who teach prospective teachers of math from K–12—dominate the development of the content of school curricula and determine the pedagogy used, into which they’ve brought theories lacking any evidence of success and that emphasize political and social ends, not mastery of mathematics.
continued at Chicago Boyz
2:01 PM
Sunday, November 15, 2009
WORTHWHILE READING
Who is America's top college professor? Three finalists have been identified in a contest which is focused on teaching rather than on research.
Entrepreneur Steve Blank writes about the difference between motion and action.
Silicon Valley writer Michael Malone isn't very impressed with Tom Friedman's views on globalization--but has some issues with Friedman's debunkers as well.
6:08 PM
Friday, November 13, 2009
WORTH PONDERING
Management Advice from George Eliot
Fancy what a game of chess would be if all the chessman had passions and intellects, more or less small and cunning; if you were not only uncertain about your adversary's men, but a little uncertain also about your own . . . You would be especially likely to be beaten if you depneded arrogantly on your mathematical imagination, and regarded your passionate pieces with contempt. Yet this imaginary chess is easy compared with a game man has to play against his fellow-men with other fellow-men for instruments.
--George Eliot, in Felix Holt, the Radical (1866)
Lots of political leaders and their academic advisors, and also more than a few business executives, fail to understand this point about the kind of "chess" that they are playing.
See also investing advice from George Eliot.
cross-posted at Chicago Boyz
Previous Worth Pondering
12:47 PM
Thursday, November 12, 2009
WORTHWHILE READING
An interesting post by Robert Avrech about F Scott Fitzgerald in Hollywood.
Bill Waddell offers a poetic critique of the theory of core competence and the impact of that theory on American business practice.
Here's someone who wasn't very fond of George Bush when he was in office...but has recently been doing some serious rethinking.
6:02 PM
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
POWER: MECHANICAL, NATIONAL, AND PERSONAL
James Boswell is of course best known as the great biographer of Samuel Johnson. But Boswell didn't spend all his time in Dr Johnson's company. In 1776, he visited the Boulton & Watt steam engine factory. Showing Boswell around, Matthew Boulton summed up his business one simple phrase:
I sell here, sir, what all the world desires to have--POWER.
Fast forward to 2009. In the United States as in Western Europe, politicians are conducting a vendetta against the energy industry. See for example this, which describes the closure of an aluminum smelter in Montana--because it can no longer obtain affordable electricity--and the probable exit of much of the nonferrous metals industry from Western Europe, for the same reason. (Link via MaxedOutMama)
So, was Matthew Boulton wrong? Have we finally found a group of humans--our present-day political leaders--who are NOT interested in power?
continued at Chicago Boyz
12:45 PM
VETERANS DAY
Neptunus Lex
Bookworm
Video: The war was in color.
8:52 AM
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
BOMBS FROM IRAN: NOW WITH CONVENIENT COMPACT PACKAGING
There is evidence that not only is Iran working on a nuclear weapon--it is making progress with two-point implosion technology, which allows the diameter of a bomb to be reduced so that it can easily fit into the nosecone of a missile.
Nuclear weapons expect James Acton:
It's remarkable that, before perfecting step one, they are going straight to step four or five ... To start with more sophisticated designs speaks of level of technical ambition that is surprising.
continued at Chicago Boyz
8:08 AM
Saturday, November 07, 2009
GANGS OF CHICAGO
There are the Vice Lords, and the Gangster Disciples, and the Black Disciples, and the Four Corner Hustlers. But the gang that does the most harm to the Chicago public schools is--in the view of State Senator James Meeks--the Chicago Teachers Union.
via Joanne Jacobs
cross-posted at Chicago Boyz
8:14 AM
JUST UNBELIEVABLE
Asked at what point an attack becomes a terrorist attack (with reference to the murders at Fort Hood) White House press secretary Robert Gibbs replied: "I don't know that I have the theoretical background to answer that. I would pose that to somebody at the FBI."
Theoretical background?
These people are very, very strange.
5:40 AM
Friday, November 06, 2009
DISSING FREE SPEECH
Here's Obama's "media diversity czar," Mark Lloyd:
It should be clear by now that my focus here is not freedom of speech or the press. This freedom is all too often an exaggeration. At the very least, blind references to freedom of speech or the press serve as a distraction from the critical examination of other communications policies.
[T]he purpose of free speech is warped to protect global corporations and block rules that would promote democratic governance.
(from his 2006 book)
Mr Lloyd has had some very positive things to say about Venezuelan thug Hugo Chavez and his approach to the media:
In Venezuela, with Chavez, is really an incredible revolution - a democratic revolution. To begin to put in place things that are going to have an impact on the people of Venezuela.
The property owners and the folks who then controlled the media in Venezuela rebelled - worked, frankly, with folks here in the U.S. government - worked to oust him. But he came back with another revolution, and then Chavez began to take very seriously the media in his country.
More here about what this "taking very seriously" is doing to destroy media independence in Venezuela.
(link via Ms Ellison)
continued at Chicago Boyz
6:39 AM
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
BUFFETT'S BIG PURCHASE
Berkshire Hathaway is buying the Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $46 billion. (The number includes assumpntion of $10B in debt.) Berkshire already owned about 20% of the railroad's stock and is now purchasing the rest--BNI shareholders, of which I am one, can opt for either cash or Berkshire stock.
Here's Buffett's associate, Charlie Munger, commenting several years ago on the railroad industry:
Railroads -- now that's an example of changing our minds. Warren and I have hated railroads our entire life. They're capital-intensive, heavily unionized, with some make-work rules, heavily regulated, and long competed with a comparative disadvantage vs. the trucking industry, which has a very efficient method of propulsion (diesel engines) and uses free public roads. Railroads have long been a terrible business and have been lousy for investors.
We did finally change our minds and invested. We threw out our paradigms, but did it too late. We should have done it two years ago, but we were too stupid to do it at the most ideal time. There's a German saying: Man is too soon old and too late smart. We were too late smart. We finally realized that railroads now have a huge competitive advantage, with double stacked railcars, guided by computers, moving more and more production from China, etc. They have a big advantage over truckers in huge classes of business.
Burlington Northern's CEO, Matthew Rose (he will continue leading the railroad under its new ownership) has an interesting background. While attending college, he worked in the summers as a brakeman and switchman for the Missouri Pacific Railroad. After getting his BS degree (marketing with a minor in logistics) he joined that same railroad as a management trainee, rising to the position of assistant trainmaster. He then went over to the dark side (as many in the rail industry probably saw it), taking a job with a trucking company. He joined Burlington Northern in 1993 and was named CEO in 2000.
More on BNI and the railroad industry here.
5:58 AM
Monday, November 02, 2009
NO CLASS, NO JUDGMENT
Here's Hillary Clinton, speaking in Pakistan:
I think that, look, we all know that the Israeli-Palestinian issue is one that is a very serious and difficult problem that we are working hard also to try to resolve. We inherited a lot of problems. If you remember, when my husband left office, we were very close to an agreement because he worked on it all the time. The next administration did not make it a priority and did not really do much until toward the end. And unfortunately, we are trying to make up for some lost time, in my opinion.
The endless attempts by the Obama administration to blame everything on their predecessor are getting worn around the edges, and betray a serious lack of class and of executive strength. But even worse: Hillary's formulation puts the blame for the Israeli-Palestinian problem in the wrong place--on the U.S. (and, by extension, on Israel) rather than on the death-cult leadership that has long controlled the Palestinian territories.
continued at Chicago Boyz
4:05 PM
COOL RETROTECH
I was vaguely aware of the Martin Mars, a very large seaplane built in the 1940s for the U.S. Navy...but had no idea that any of these airplanes were still flying in commercial service.
Turns out that two of these planes--the Hawaii Mars and the Philippine Mars--are in regular use as water bombers for forest-fire fighting. Tailspin Tom has a great set of photographs.
Via Neptunus Lex, who notes that the Mars is less a flying boat than a flying ship.
cross-posted at Chicago Boyz
8:24 AM
ANYONE SURPRISED?
The Democratic health care bill (House version) includes something called "Medical Liability Alternatives," which provides for incentive payments to states which adopt and implement alternatives to medical liability litigation. BUT a state is not eligible for the incentive payments if that state puts a law on the books that limits attorneys' fees or imposes caps on damages.
So..not only is the Democratic leadership unwilling to seriously address the issues of out-of-control medical liability costs at a national level, they want to use the financial power of the Federal government to prevent this issue from being addressed at a state level.
via Lead & Gold. Full text of the bill is here
6:05 AM
Saturday, October 31, 2009
HALLOWEEN
From the hag and hungry goblin
That into rags would rend ye
And the spirits that stand
By the naked man
In the Book of Moons, defend ye!
That of your five sound sense
You never be forsaken
Nor wander from
Yourself with Tom
Abroad to beg your bacon
The moon's my constant mistress
And the lonely owl my marrow
The flaming drake
And the night-crow make
Me music to my sorrow
I know more than Apollo
For oft, when he lies sleeping
I see the stars
At mortal wars
And the rounded welkin weeping
With a host of furious fancies
Whereof I am commander
With a burning spear
And a horse of air
To the wilderness I wander
By a knight of ghosts and shadows
I summoned am to tourney
Ten leagues beyond
The wide world's end
Methinks it is no journey
(Not specifically a Halloween poem, but it certainly sets the mood, doesn't it? This is Tom O'Bedlam's Song, dating from sometime around 1600. There are lots more verses, and many different versions.)
11:31 AM
WORTHWHILE READING
Lean Blog writes about interruption countermeasures...actions taken by hospital nurses in San Francisco to reduce interruptions are said to have reduced medication errors by 88 percent. In comments, someone offers an example of similar positive results in warehouse operations for error reduction thru interruption reduction.
What "cash for clunkers" did to the availability of affordable used cars. (via Maggie's Farm)
Don Sensing looks at Obama as a milleniarian.
8:01 AM
Friday, October 30, 2009
NANCY & THE EPICYCLES
The healthcare bill is now up to almost 2000 pages.
Which reminds me of the epicycles.
continued at Chicago Boyz
12:47 PM
Thursday, October 29, 2009
JUST UNBELIEVABLE
In the course of a sycophantic paean to Obama, the new head of the National Endowment for the Arts manages to work five errors into a single sentence.
(via Newmark's Door)
5:46 AM
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN DECLINE?
Michael Malone has been writing about the technology industry, and particularly about Silicon Valley, for a couple of decades. This recent article is not very optimistic. Although Malone identifies several emerging technologies as having great potential, he fears that the basic mechanism by which new technologies are commercialized--the formation and growth of new enterprises--is badly broken.
continued at Chicago Boyz
1:24 PM
Monday, October 26, 2009
RETRO-READING
It's interesting to pick up a copy of a business magazine from 10 years ago or more and look at what was then hot and at the predictions that were being made--and how well they stood up with the passage of time.
Forbes ASAP (4/6/98) carried an article by George Gilder, in which he asserts that companies will increasingly compete by understanding that the customer's is a valuable resource--and making it possible to do business with them without wasting it.
The fact is that the entire economy is riddled with time-wasting routines and regimes that squander much of the time of the average customer. Suffice it to say that the concept of the customer's life span as a crucially precious resource, indeed the most precious resource in the information economy, has not penetrated to many of the major business and governmental institutions in the United States, let alone overseas.
The message of the telecosm is that this era is over, as dead as slavery in 1865. These lingering attitudes in established busineses and government offer the largest opportunities for new companies and strategies in the information age.
continued at Chicago Boyz
8:39 AM
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